Posted on 11th April 2016 by Admin in Stockpair Daily Insight

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While it is true that the idea behind binary trading is simplicity, there is no doubt that an informed trader has a much higher chance of success. Access to this information is much closer at hand than most people think, and one of the best ways to get it is using the tools available to you.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis is the process of determining a certain asset’s value currently or in the future, by looking into factors that affect the actual status and success of the company, industry, or economy.

Be Informed: a lot of this information can be obtained from news, statements, and reports that are released at every level, from businesses to governments. A wonderful tool is market news and analysis that Stockpair provides, giving you insight into current events, trends, and expectations.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis focuses on trends and patterns as opposed to value. The key here is the price’s movement in the market and its history.

Support and Resistance: these essentially indicate the price at which a stock is changing its trend. When it moves below the support its will probably start being sold, and if it moves above the resistance it will probably be bought.

Trend: This can be short, mid, or long term. Just like in the general use of the word, a trend indicates the direction an asset is heading.

Sentiment: Often times the market is controlled by supply and demand, and traders’ behavior can affect it directly. Sentiment allows you insight into what other traders are doing with the chosen asset.

Charts: There are several different versions of charts for these purposes, however all adhere to the same basic principle. They offer a graphic representation of an assets movements, whether in time or price.

 

Posted on 4th April 2016 by Admin in Stockpair Daily Insight

Oil has been dominating headlines for quite some time now. Prices had reached record lows amongst political and economic unrest. It appears though, that there might finally be some long overdue recovery, partially due to global actions. Oil is an asset that is largely influenced by outside geopolitical sources. As the oil crisis showed no end in sight, OPEC’s action to try and reach a production freeze seems to have been met with more acceptance than previous suggestions, though we must still wait and see what comes out of their April 17th meeting, especially considering the suspected absence of Iran and Libya. Developments in Russia have also certainly contributed, as favor for the country and their currency rose dramatically after public support for their exit from Syria. Oil, being Russia’s largest industry along with gas, has certainly reaped the benefits of the positive political moves.

Understanding Oil

The crude oil industry is built of several brands such as Brent Light Crude Oil and Bonny Light. In addition, there are several types of oil such as light, heavy, sweet and sour. One barrel of crude oil is the equivalent of 42 U.S. gallons. After the barrel of oil is refined, it yields approximately 20 gallons of motor gasoline and seven gallons of diesel. Lighter, sweeter crude is in more demand globally, but is becoming increasingly difficult to access.

In 2004, annual worldwide oil consumption was 30 billion barrels. This would not have been controversial, except that new discoveries during that time led to a fall to eight billion barrels. By 2005, worldwide demand for oil had reached 31 billion barrels, leaving worldwide emergency stockpiles nearly depleted for 37 days. While Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. are the top oil producing countries in the world, they have more difficulty meeting demands. Currently, 62% of the world’s accessible oil can be found in the Middle East, centered on five countries: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq and Kuwait.

Crude oil futures are traded in the following exchanges: Futures contracts for crude oil are traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The oil future ticker is @CL.

Drivers

  • For the past 50 years, the price of crude oil has been denominated in U.S. dollars. With the fluctuation in the value of the U.S. dollar and the prominence that newer currencies such as the euro are gaining, OPEC is considering switching crude oil from a U.S. dollar quotation system to either the euro or to a basket of multiple currencies. This could have an adverse effect on oil prices in the short run.
  • Alternative methods of oil development are gaining prominence. Oil shale and tar sands are becoming viable oil producing sources. As the price of technology begins to decrease, these sources become more accessible to refiners. Methods for turning methane and coal into oil substitutes, first discovered in the 1930s and during WWII, are being explored again. All of these alternatives have the opportunity to upset crude oil prices.
  • Global warming is considered an unintended consequence of using petroleum-based products. This has led to an aggressive move to develop green energy sources such as electric cars, fuel cells, ethanol, liquid natural gas and others, in the hope that they can potentially reduce the world’s reliance on crude oil. As these technologies become more common in the marketplace, they have the ability to displace crude oil.
  • Geopolitical Conditions – geopolitical conditions have a significant influence on oil prices. In general, wars increase the demand for oil and the uncertainty in the markets. As a result, oil prices increase.

Implication

  • Inflation – calculating the consumer price index is based largely on oil prices. Therefore, one of the possible reasons for a lower inflation figure might arise from low oil prices. In the last year due to the sharp fall in oil prices, there was an adverse effect in inflation in the short run. This led to changes in the monetary policy of central banks.
  • Correlation with stock indices – in the last year a positive correlation was measured between oil and the stock markets.
  • Russia and Canada are countries whose production is heavily dependent on oil sentiment. The depreciation of oil prices in the last 18 months has led to currency depreciation in these countries.

Chart

Currently the oil is traded at 40$ for a barrel. This price is close to a significant resistance level which has played a major role in the past.

 

Oil Chart

Oil is certainly worth keeping an eye out for. If oil does manage to stabilize, it automatically means there are plenty of things going on in the market and in politics that we should turn our gaze to and perhaps even take advantage of. At Stockpair you can find all the tools to capitalize on these trends, along with leading financial experts to guide you.

Posted on 28th March 2016 by Admin in Stockpair Daily Insight

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In the last 6 weeks the Russian currency has significantly appreciated against the USD dollar. The accurate figures are +21% in 10 weeks, impressive in particular for currencies.
This phenomenon is interesting because of two reasons:

  1. The US dollar outperforms against almost all of the major currencies, implying the Russian Ruble has a good story behind its behavior.
  2. This event (Ruble appreciation) is rare in the last few years.

 

So how has this turn around occurred?

The largest industry in Russia is Oil and Gas. After a long period where crude oil reached an historical low around $26, it seemed a turning point was established in Oil prices. As long as oil prices will be traded above $40 it will reinforce Russian productivity and its economy. As a result of this process the Russian Ruble will appreciate.

Another significant factor is the improvement in geopolitical conditions and international atmosphere regarding Russian actions recently. Russian warplanes left Syria, raising U.N. hopes for peace talks. The improvement in geopolitical conditions towards Russia decreases the uncertainty and incentivizes international investments in Russia which is reflected in the Ruble appreciation’s.

One man’s loss is almost always another one’s gain, as is the case here with USD/RUB. This surprising trend is going strong and justifies follow up.

 

 

Posted on 14th March 2016 by Admin in Stockpair Daily Insight

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On June 23rd 2016, the UK will hold a referendum to vote whether the UK should leave the EU. This decision has stirred a massive debate within the United Kingdom between those pushing for remaining and those that believe they should leave. While it is the politicians and economists that are leading the two opposing camps, at the end of the day the decision lies in the hands of the people. This begs the question if this is a decision that the people are informed enough to make.

The decision to leave the EU would have massive implications for England and the EU’s economy, but that isn’t where it ends. One cannot overlook the significance of this decision on the global economy. It is generally agreed that there would be a shock to the economy but the definition and extent of that shock are where opinions diverge.

The G20, for example, have voiced their dire warning through Chancellor, George Osborne, who said “Here at the G20, finance leaders and central bank governors of the world’s biggest economies have raised serious concerns about the risks posed by a UK exit from the EU. They have concluded unanimously today that what they call the shock of a potential UK vote to leave is among the biggest economic dangers this year.”

The effects of England leaving the EU are numerous and far reaching. For starters is the effect on the economies, be it England’s, the EU’s or global. This is a precedent whose full results we won’t know for a long time, with many speculating that this might lead to other countries choosing to follow suit. What we do know for certain is that such a separation will have a significant impact.

Posted on 22nd February 2016 by Admin in Stockpair Daily Insight

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The global economy has been facing a Sisyphean uphill battle since the devastating financial collapse of 2008. In the wake of such a catastrophic global financial breakdown, with aftershocks and effects lasting long years, it is not surprising that economists and investors are jumpy at any chance of repeat. Recovery has been exceptionally slow… so slow in fact that we cannot be sure whether the current condition is in fact a new collapse or the continued effects of 2008.

2015 saw some window of relief with NFP report numbers in the US steadily rising, and the apparent stabilization of the world’s largest economy as evident by the FED raising the interest rate. However, 2016 has been putting any optimists to rest.

The big debate is this… are we in fact in crisis?

It would seem that this is a simple question but try asking 5 different experts and see what happens. The safest answer at the moment seems to be that we are on the verge of a crisis. True, there are economic indicators that spell global calamity, not least among them being China’s continuing decline, however, when we look at things a bit closer the picture changes. Each individual economy, is not in fact in crisis. It is the synergy of all these economies and their domino-esque effects on each other that offers the threat.

Whether warranted yet or not, investors appear to be fleeing to safe haven investments. The overall global economic climate at the moment is one of nervousness and fear. If 2016 does not start showing some signs of a road to recovery, we could all be facing a very grim outlook.

Posted on 8th February 2016 by Admin in Stockpair Daily Insight

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The second NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) of 2016 was released last Friday, Feb 5th. Traders’ first reaction was to the lower than expected new jobs number at 151K. This led to the assumption that an interest rate rise was not on the horizon and the implied expectation that the dollar will weaken and precious metals will rise. However, within a mere couple of hours, investors began looking deeper, and noted that while new jobs under achieved, there was a rise in average earnings and unemployment was at its lowest in 8 years. This data puts an interest rise back on the table, giving the market its second sharp direction shift of the day. Despite these speculations and market shifts, the fact of the matter is that we have no idea how the numbers will play out, leading to a volatile and uneasy market. For the moment, we must all wait for a sign from the FED to have any realistic direction.

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Earnings report season is coming to a close but not before some major players reveal their reports. All of the reports were affected by the current strong dollar in comparison to last year’s weaker state.

 

cokeThe Coca Cola Company is set to release its report on Tuesday, Feb 9th. The company has undergone major cost cutting restructuring the past year in the face of lowered demand and heightened health consciousness.

 

teslaTesla will be releasing their report on Feb 10th. The company has seen its share of woes lately with stock price plunges, unmet deadlines, and low oil prices boosting conventional car sales and threatening the electric car market. A hint towards the viability of Elon Musk’s complicated and ambitious plan for the company will be availble through the report

 

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Posted on 1st February 2016 by Admin in Stockpair weekly Insights

 

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There are 2 major economic surges that we have been able to follow from Q4 2015 until today and those are the rise of the US economy and the crash of the Chinese economy. One of the major questions is if there is a correlation between these two economic leaders both in getting to this situation and for what is to be expected in the future.

For the US, 2015 was a banner year with a steady rise in NFP numbers and the healthiest economic outlook since the crash of 2008, even leading to the first raise in the interest rate in nearly a decade. In China, however, 2015 was the beginning of a series of market crashes and unsuccessful solutions. China is currently in the process of trying to rebalance its economy from a manufacturing and exports base to a services and private consumption base. The process is not proving to be an easy one, and as such has the world economy on edge and wary of global repercussions.

So what is the correlation, if any, between America’s rise and China’s fall? For one of the possibilities we must go back to the original US crash of 2008 which had a major effect on the global economy. As simply as possible, America’s crash came from people spending too much money they didn’t have. Next we saw countries spending too much leading to debt and the 2009 crisis in Greece which became the European depression. Now, we might just be seeing another chapter in the evolvement which is the current China crisis, largely stemming from too much government spending on “ghost” building. Of course, we can also look at these two matters as completely separate independent occurrences which have yet to show the final influences on each other and the global market.

At the end of the day, despite speculations galore, most analyzers and commentators will have to sum up future predictions by saying we just don’t know what’s going to come, largely because we have not been in such a situation before.  What we can bet on, is that such strong trends in the world’s largest and second largest economies will not leave us unaffected.

 

Posted on 18th January 2016 by Admin in Stockpair weekly Insights

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Today, January 18th 2016, is Martin Luther King Day in the US, meaning the stock market is closed for the holiday. While some may think this day is fruitless, it is in fact an opportunity. This is the best time to invest in commodities such as oil and silver, and in this case, let’s talk about gold.

Gold is what’s known as a “safe haven” commodity. There are several reasons for this. Essentially it means that when the market is highly volatile or filled with uncertainty, gold is considered a safer trading route. It is not an asset where we can expect any major or sharp swings. Another reason for Gold’s haven status is the lack of dividends or interest. Finally, gold’s prices are easier to predict because at the core they work on a basic supply and demand formula. Many might be doubting the shiny metal due to its fairly weak performance in 2015, but predictions and market conditions show us we shouldn’t count it out for 2016.

The global economy is facing an uphill battle at the moment, primarily resulting from China and Europe’s economies being on the verge of collapse. Along with this, the US’s economy is in good health, which means that interest will be rising. All of these factors together mean that many investors will be scared away from stocks for the time being, and in such times will turn to gold.

We talked about supply and demand, which we should pay attention to here. Quite simply, there is more demand for gold at the moment than supply. One of the reasons for this is that a significant percentage of bullion has been bought by several Central Banks in the past few years and they are not selling. In addition, with gold as with everything else, we can turn to our good old adage – trend is our friend, and trends are giving us a few hints. For example, the gold-to-silver ratio is currently at 75. Twice before we’ve seen it hit this level (in 2008 and 2003) and twice before we’ve seen a surge in gold prices a few months after.

While it may be true that not all that glitters is gold, gold has not yet lost its shine, and today is a great day to give this metal some special attention.

 

Posted on 11th January 2016 by Admin in Stockpair weekly Insights

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This week starts off the Earnings reports season. These are reports of virtually every major publicly traded company released once a quarter and showing their earnings. Quarters are reviewed against corresponding quarters of previous years. This is because there are seasonal considerations affecting results. For example, numbers seen in Q4 might be expected to be higher in certain companies due to events like Christmas than they would be in summer months. The Earnings reports are a major market factor. The effect on the market largely comes from the correlation between predictions and final results.

The first report scheduled to be released will be from JP Morgan on Jan 14th, 2016. This promises to be an especially interesting release due to recent legal problems they have been experiencing. In 2008 the company was accused of mishandling foreclosure processes. A settlement was reached in 2013 for JP Morgan and other accused US servicers, however the OCC found not all conditions were met by JP Morgan, leading to a final fine of $48 million.

Granted, it is not unusual for major corporations to experience litigation, no big hoorah there. However, when it comes to the market, what we will be waiting to see is the monetary effects of these legal issues on the quarter’s earnings and whether it will knock predictions and results out of sync. As for now, the consensus seems to be an expectation that earnings will prevail over litigation losses.

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— A symmetrical triangle in this month’s chart encouraging for a bullish trend

Posted on 5th January 2016 by Admin in Stockpair weekly Insights

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January 5, 2016

We all know the NFP (Non Farm Payroll) is coming this week. The NFP is a report put out by the US Department of Labor indicating how many jobs were lost and gained within the last month either through employment or changes in wages and work hours. The NFP besides being the oldest report, has well established itself as the most significant report released each month and a golden opportunity for traders to capitalize as the market moves in its wake. This week however, promises to be the most exciting release yet.

In December of 2015 the FED raised interest rates for the first time in a decade. All eyes are now turned to see what will happen in 2016 with this major development and the kick off to finding out what is coming our way this year is by far the NFP. This report historically delivers a window into the status of the economy as well as having a very real effect on the direction the economy will turn in the coming weeks and months. The results of the report, being released this Friday, January 8th will no doubt send the market into major fluctuations and help decide the rate by which the FED will continue to raise the interest rates. The market is most affected in gold, equities, and the US dollar, making it an ideal environment for Binary and Pair option trading with numbers spiking more extremely than on any other day.

With a new year in sight and developments in 2015 leaving everyone on the edge of their seats, predictions for what will happen with the FED and the interest rates are flying. At the end of the day however much of the decision will be based on unemployment numbers, thus making the coming NFP a serious factor and giving traders a chance to get in on one of the most crucial events to shape our fiscal 2016.

 

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